{
  "method": "ACO-level N_AB from the Shared Savings Program Performance Year Financial and Quality Results PUF, split by each ACO's own state mix learned from the 2016 county file (ACO ID join); FFS-proportional fallback for ACOs absent from that file.",
  "rejected_method": "FFS-proportional split for all ACOs \u2014 fails the bridge test at -28.7 pp for Vermont in 2016, because it splits OneCare by NH/VT population when OneCare is ~95% VT.",
  "holdout": {
    "shares_from": 2016,
    "scored_on": 2017,
    "mean_abs_error_pp": 1.76,
    "focus": [
      {
        "state": "AK",
        "pen_true": 4.62,
        "pen_est": 7.42,
        "err_pp": 2.79
      },
      {
        "state": "DC",
        "pen_true": 16.96,
        "pen_est": 17.99,
        "err_pp": 1.03
      },
      {
        "state": "DE",
        "pen_true": 53.23,
        "pen_est": 56.54,
        "err_pp": 3.31
      },
      {
        "state": "ME",
        "pen_true": 45.54,
        "pen_est": 46.48,
        "err_pp": 0.94
      },
      {
        "state": "VT",
        "pen_true": 51.61,
        "pen_est": 52.13,
        "err_pp": 0.52
      },
      {
        "state": "WY",
        "pen_true": 6.81,
        "pen_est": 11.1,
        "err_pp": 4.28
      }
    ]
  },
  "backcast": [
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "vt": 60.7,
      "synthetic_mssp": 12.9,
      "synthetic_incl_pioneer": 15.4,
      "gap_pp": 45.3,
      "vt_fallback_pct": 14.4,
      "iowa_fallback_pct": 41.0
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "vt": 54.0,
      "synthetic_mssp": 15.0,
      "synthetic_incl_pioneer": 15.0,
      "gap_pp": 39.0,
      "vt_fallback_pct": 3.8,
      "iowa_fallback_pct": 38.2
    }
  ]
}